SpaceX Now Valued at $350 Billion Facing Space Debris Problem(IV)

By Yibai, Jointing.Media, in Shanghai, 2024-12-28

Managing space debris is far from over

In 1993, the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) was established by the world’s leading spacefaring nations to serve as an intergovernmental platform for the exchange of information on space debris research and to promote cooperation on space debris among member agencies.

China has been a formal member of IADC since 1995 and there are now 12 IADC member states, covering almost all the world’s major spacefaring nations. In April 2002, the 20th IADC Conference formally adopted the IADC Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines, which require all countries to formulate policies to ensure that the generation of large amounts of space debris from future space activities can be effectively controlled. It requires that “when planning and operating space systems, an organisation should take systematic action, starting from the mission requirements analysis and definition phase, to reduce the adverse impact on the orbital environment by incorporating space debris mitigation measures into the life cycle of space systems”.

Since the turn of the century, a number of test spacecraft launched by major spacefaring nations, including China, have incorporated space debris mitigation technologies, such as space target capture or docking with non-cooperative objects. In recent years, orbital transfer operations for real spacecraft or space debris have become a reality.

February 2020. The United States launched a MEV (Mission Expander) satellite, which successfully docked with the retired Intelsat 901 communications satellite in graveyard orbit. The satellite has been towed back to geosynchronous operational orbit and resume operations on 2 April, 2020. Five years later, when the propellant carried by the MEV is nearly depleted, the MEV will again tow the satellite into a graveyard orbit before descending to re-enter the atmosphere on its own, and in April 2021, a second MEV satellite will perform a similar ‘resurrection’ operation on Intelsat 10-02.

In January 2022, China’s Practice 21 satellite successfully captured the defunct Beidou G2 satellite and sent it into a ‘graveyard orbit’ (a higher, permanent orbit away from the crowded geosynchronous orbit). After completing its mission, Practice 21 then returned to geostationary orbit.

Currently, space debris response efforts focus on four main areas: monitoring and warning, collision avoidance and shielding, de-orbiting and disposal strategies, and active removal.

Space debris monitoring relies heavily on ground-based radar and optical sensors capable of detecting objects larger than 10 centimetres. One of the most significant advances in ground-based tracking is the Space Fence radar. Designed to detect and track objects as small as 1 centimetre in LEO, Space Fence, a next-generation S-band radar system, is expected to increase the number of trackable objects from approximately 23,000 to more than 200,000 and is the most advanced radar system operated by the United States Space Force (USSF).

Other ground-based systems are also being upgraded to improve tracking of smaller debris. Improvements are also being made to optical tracking systems, such as those in Australia, which use telescopes and cameras to capture images of objects in space, allowing more accurate tracking of tiny objects at high altitudes that cannot be detected by radar.

One of the most promising advances in debris tracking technology is the Belgian company Arcsec, which has reportedly developed an innovative system that extends the functionality of the Star Tracker to detect space debris as small as 1 inch (2.5 cm). It’s debris tracking system can be retrofitted to existing satellites already in orbit. This means that currently operating satellites can be equipped with the technology without the need for a re-launch, helping to expand the network of debris sensors in space. Arcsec’s technology has already sold around 50 star trackers worldwide and is expected to become an important part of the space debris monitoring ecosystem. Arcsec’s system can also be integrated into existing satellite infrastructure without the need for major overhauls, making it an efficient and cost-effective solution.

The development of Active Debris Removal (ADR) systems and improved collision avoidance technologies is also crucial. Projects such as ESA’s $120 million ClearSpace-1 mission aim to capture and de-orbit end-of-life satellites. However, these systems are still in the experimental phase and large-scale deployment would take years, not to mention the long mission development cycle with its many variables. It has been reported that the target of ESA’s ClearSpace-1 mission has been hit by other debris and it is feared that the original plan will not be implemented.

As space exploration has accelerated in recent years and Earth’s orbit has become increasingly crowded, the challenge of space debris will continue to grow. To ensure the continued safety and sustainability of space activities, a more comprehensive approach to space debris management is needed, including better international cooperation, stronger regulation and innovative technologies to detect, mitigate and remove debris.

But it is easier to say than done. Orbital and frequency resources are scarce and a matter of national security, and on a “first come, first served” basis, countries compete to launch satellites and occupy orbits. In this context, the more and faster SpaceX launches satellites, the more space junk will be generated in the future, and the cost of recovering an end-of-life satellite can be far greater than the value it contributes when it is ‘on duty’, and as a commercial company it certainly does not currently have the motivation and strength to increase its investment in satellite recycling.

Looking at the development history of other industries, perhaps the status quo will only change when space debris seriously affects the interests of all parties. Perhaps then space waste recycling will become a new field full of business opportunities, just like e-waste recycling. Hopefully, with the application and proliferation of new technologies such as quantum computing, digital twins and artificial intelligence, we will be able to keep this threat from above at bay and prevent it from happening in the first place.

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References：

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/capital-markets/spacex-share-sale-is-said-to-value-company-at-about-350-billion
https://physicsworld.com/a/satellites-burning-up-in-the-atmosphere-may-deplete-earths-ozone-layer/
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https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/27879/20201026/experts-reveal-that-3-of-spacexs-starlink-satellites-have-failed-in-orbit-so-far.htm
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