SpaceX Now Valued at $350 Billion Facing Space Debris Problem(I)

By Yibai, Jointing.Media, in Shanghai, 2024-12-25

SpaceX and its investors have agreed to purchase as much as $1.25 billion of insider shares in a transaction valuing Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite maker at about $350 billion, according to Bloomberg. The proliferation of satellites in low-Earth orbit (LEO), as SpaceX continues to deploy star-linked satellites, is not only having a tremendous impact on the global communications network, but also creating new challenges for the space environment. The Federal Aviation Administration of the United States of America stated in a report that large constellations in low Earth orbits could increase the risk of re-entering debris on Earth and in the aviation sector. The report specifically mentions SpaceX as contributing more than 85% of the expected risk. A recent paper published in Geophysical Research Letters shows that satellites lose 51-95% of their mass when they re-enter the atmosphere. But these masses do not disappear into thin air, they become particles floating in the atmosphere as a result of violent friction. These particles can pose a threat to the Earth’s high-altitude environment by depleting ozone and slowing the recovery of the ozone hole. The booming satellite industry behind Starlink could affect or threaten the entire world.

The satellite industry is growing fast, and SpaceX is riding the wave

From weather forecasting to navigation satellites are a critical component of many of the systems we rely on. Since 1957, when the former Soviet Union launched the world’s first artificial Earth satellite into space, there have been 6,572 launches worldwide through the end of 2023. There will be 231 launches in 2024, more than double the average number of launches over the past 60 years. Half of those launches are performed by SpaceX. Total 2023 global satellite industry revenues are estimated at $285.3 billion. Payload Research estimates SpaceX’s 2023 revenues to be $8,721 million, with launch revenues of $3,509 million, Starlink revenues of $4,178 million, and other revenues of $1,034 million. For the first time, Starlink revenues have surpassed launch revenues to become the most profitable business. Starlink is now available in 70 countries, with more than 2.3 million active users by the end of 2023, well above the 1 million by the end of 2022, and unprecedented profitability. Starlink revenues jump from $1.9 billion in 2022 to $4.2 billion in 2023 as demand far exceeds expectations, and are expected to exceed $10 billion by 2024. Since 2024, SpaceX has continued to accelerate the deployment of the Starlink, reducing the average launch frequency from 5.8 days in 2023 to 4.1 days. As of November 2024, SpaceX had 7,213 Starlink satellites in low-Earth orbit, representing more than 60% of the total number of satellites in orbit worldwide. In addition, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission has approved the deployment of 12,000 satellites by 2027 for the Starlink program. The total number of satellites in the entire Starlink program is 42,000. SpaceX’s 4,216 Gen1 satellites in orbit have a design life of about five years. SpaceX claims it will then use the propulsion systems on the satellites to lower them from their operational orbits at an altitude of about 550 kilometers and burn them up like meteors against atmospheric drag to avoid hitting people’s rooftops. Scientists who study the atmosphere have questioned the destruction of satellites by burning them in the atmosphere, which they say could exacerbate global warming. Recently, a team accidentally found a number of ozone-depleting metals in the stratosphere, where ozone is formed.

(To be continued)

Edited by Wind and DeepL Image:Starlink Satellites over Carson National Forest M Lewinsky | M Lewinsky/CC BY 4.0

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