{"id":9563,"date":"2025-04-23T16:42:56","date_gmt":"2025-04-23T16:42:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/2025\/04\/%e6%9f%a5%e7%90%86%c2%b7%e8%8a%92%e6%a0%bc%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%93%e4%b8%9a%e4%ba%ba%e5%a3%ab%e9%9c%80%e8%a6%81%e6%9b%b4%e5%a4%9a%e7%9a%84%e8%b7%a8%e5%ad%a6%e7%a7%91%e6%8a%80%e8%83%bd\/"},"modified":"2025-04-24T13:34:27","modified_gmt":"2025-04-24T13:34:27","slug":"charlie-munger","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/2025\/04\/charlie-munger\/","title":{"rendered":"\u67e5\u7406\u00b7\u8292\u683c\uff1a\u4e13\u4e1a\u4eba\u58eb\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u6280\u80fd"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/columnists\/ideas-about-education\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong><span style=\"color: #808080;\">\u3010\u4e13\u680f\u3011| Columnists&gt;\u6559\u80b2\u8bf4<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u67e5\u7406\u00b7\u8292\u683c\uff08Charlie Munger\uff09\uff0c 1998\u5e744\u670824\u65e5<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #333333;\">\u672c\u6587\u4e3a\u67e5\u7406\u00b7\u8292\u683c\u5728\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u6cd5\u5b66\u96621948\u5c4a\u6bd5\u4e1a\u751f\u4e94\u5341\u5468\u5e74\u56e2\u805a\u4e0a\u7684\u6f14\u8bb2<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #333333;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/julia-3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-9450 aligncenter\" title=\"julia-3\" src=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/julia-3-768x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"461\" height=\"614\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/julia-3-768x1024.png 768w, https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/julia-3-225x300.png 225w, https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/julia-3.png 1060w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 461px) 100vw, 461px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u4eca\u5929\u6211\u6253\u7b97\u73a9\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u5c0f\u7684\u6e38\u620f\uff0c\u62ff\u8d77\u82cf\u683c\u62c9\u5e95\u7684\u7eb8\u724c\uff0c\u5b83\u6e90\u4e8e\u4e00\u672c\u54f2\u5b66\u7545\u9500\u4e66\u300a\u7eb8\u724c\u7684\u79d8\u5bc6\u300b\uff08The solitaire Mystery\uff09\u3002\u4e66\u4e2d\u7684\u5c0f\u4e11\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8f\u5112\uff0c\u4ed6\u662f\u6c38\u6052\u7684\u5c0f\u5b69\uff0c\u6c38\u8fdc\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u957f\u5927\uff0c\u6c38\u8fdc\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bf9\u4eba\u751f\u5931\u53bb\u597d\u5947\u3002\u5728\u53e4\u5e0c\u814a\uff0c\u82cf\u683c\u62c9\u5e95\u5c31\u662f\u4ed6\u90a3\u4e2a\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u4e00\u526f\u6251\u514b\u724c\u4e2d\u7684\u4e11\u89d2\u724c\uff0c\u4e66\u4e2d\u79f0\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u5fc3\u4e2d\u90fd\u6d3b\u7740\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u4e11\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u82cf\u683c\u62c9\u5e95\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u8eab\u4e3a\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u82cf\u683c\u62c9\u5e95\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u5e76\u4e0d\u5177\u5907\u7279\u6b8a\u7684\u201c\u8d44\u5386\u201d\uff0c\u4ed6\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u52a9\u4ea7\u58eb\u800c\u5df2\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f05\u6000\u901d\u53bb\u7684\u5927\u5e08\u4eec\uff0c\u6c89\u6d78\u5728\u63a2\u8ba8\u4eba\u751f\u771f\u76f8\u7684\u4e50\u8da3\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u5c06\u7528\u4e0b\u97625\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u56de\u7b54\u6765\u8d2f\u7a7f\u6f14\u8bb2\u7684\u59cb\u672b\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\uff081\uff09\u804c\u4e1a\u4eba\u58eb\u662f\u5426\u9700\u8981\u589e\u5f3a\u591a\u5143\u5b66\u79d1\u6280\u80fd\uff1b<\/p>\n<p>\uff082\uff09\u6559\u80b2\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u5177\u5907\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u5b66\u79d1\u4e00\u4f53\u6027\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\uff083\uff09\u5728\u4eba\u6587\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u5c16\u7aef\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\uff0c\u591a\u5143\u5b66\u79d1\u6559\u80b2\u6700\u4f73\u7684\u5b9e\u8df5\u5f62\u5f0f\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\uff084\uff09\u8fc7\u53bb50\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u5c16\u7aef\u9886\u57df\u5728\u63a2\u8ba8\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\u6559\u80b2\u6700\u4f73\u5f62\u5f0f\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\u5982\u4f55\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\uff085\uff09\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u6559\u5b66\u5b9e\u8df5\u624d\u80fd\u52a0\u5feb\u8fd9\u79cd\u8fdb\u5ea6\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u5f00\u59cb\uff1a\u804c\u4e1a\u8ba4\u8bc6\u9700\u8981\u589e\u5f3a\u591a\u5143\u5b66\u79d1\u6280\u80fd\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u4e3a\u4e86\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u5f97\u660e\u786e\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\u77e5\u8bc6\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u63d0\u5347\u804c\u4e1a\u8ba4\u77e5\u3002\u51b3\u5fc3\u7ea0\u6b63\u504f\u79bb\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\uff0c\u5fc5\u5b9a\u5148\u8981\u63a2\u660e\u9020\u6210\u8fd9\u79cd\u9519\u8bef\u8ba4\u77e5\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u8427\u4f2f\u7eb3\u7b14\u4e0b\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7269\u66fe\u5982\u6b64\u89e3\u91ca\u804c\u4e1a\u7f3a\u9677\uff1a\u201c\u6240\u8c13\u804c\u4e1a\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f\u8499\u9a97\u5916\u884c\u4eba\u7684\u9634\u8c0b\u3002\u201d\u8427\u4f2f\u7eb3\u5206\u6790\u5f97\u6781\u662f\u3002\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u8ffd\u6eaf\u523016\u4e16\u7eaa\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u5360\u7edf\u6cbb\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u795e\u804c\u4eba\u5458\u56e0\u4e3a\u5a01\u5ec9\u2022\u5ef7\u9053\u5c14\u628a\u300a\u5723\u7ecf\u300b\u7ffb\u8bd1\u6210\u82f1\u6587\uff0c\u5c31\u628a\u4ed6\u6d3b\u6d3b\u70e7\u6b7b\u5728\u67f1\u5b50\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8427\u4f2f\u7eb3\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u4e00\u7b14\u5e26\u8fc7\uff1a\u4ece\u5229\u5df1\u51fa\u53d1\u6709\u76ca\u7684\u4f5c\u6076\u884c\u4e3a\u662f\u523d\u5b50\u624b\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u4e00\u63d0\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u804c\u4e1a\u751f\u6daf\u4e2d\uff0c\u6f5c\u610f\u8bc6\u5c42\u9762\u590d\u6742\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u503e\u5411\u7ecf\u5e38\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u53ef\u6015\u7684\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u503e\u5411\u5c24\u4e3a\u7a81\u51fa\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\uff081\uff09\u52a8\u673a\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u504f\u89c1\uff08incentive-caused 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what you 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of the 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organizing 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Abner Seavey\u5148\u751f\u6267\u610f\u53cd\u5bf9\u6211\u5165\u5b66\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u670b\u53cb\u5e9e\u5fb7\u7684\u5468\u65cb\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u6700\u7ec8\u88ab\u5f55\u53d6\u4e86\u3002\u9ad8\u4e2d\u9636\u6bb5\u6211\u5ba3\u8bfb\u4e86\u611a\u8822\u7684\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u8bfe\u7a0b\uff0c\u5168\u9760\u6b7b\u8bb0\u786c\u80cc\uff0c\u53ea\u5b66\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u5173\u4e8e\u8349\u5c65\u866b\u548c\u9752\u86d9\u89e3\u5256\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u201c\u539f\u751f\u8d28\u201d\u8fd9\u6837\u8352\u8c2c\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u2014\u2014\u4f46\u4ece\u6b64\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\u5c31\u5f7b\u5e95\u51b2\u4eba\u4eec\u89c6\u91ce\u4e2d\u6d88\u5931\u4e86\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u6211\u518d\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u53c2\u52a0\u8fc7\u4efb\u4f55\u5316\u5b66\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u6216\u8005\u5546\u52a1\u7684\u8bfe\u7a0b\u3002\u6211\u65e9\u5148\u66fe\u53d7\u8fc7\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u7269\u7406\u548c\u6570\u5b66\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u5168\u795e\u8d2f\u6ce8\u5730\u5438\u6536\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u57fa\u672c\u7ed3\u6784\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u7cbe\u9ad3\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u65ad\u8fd0\u7528\u5230\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u7269\u79d1\u5b66\u5b66\u79d1\u4e2d\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u7aed\u529b\u8ba9\u6587\u4ef6\u6574\u7406\u7cfb\u7edf\uff08organizing guide and the filing system\uff09\u7b26\u5408\u6269\u5b66\u79d1\u4e2d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u667a\u6167\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u4e00\u751f\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6559\u80b2\u8bd5\u9a8c\u7530\uff0c\u5bf9\u57fa\u672c\u673a\u6784\u7cbe\u9ad3\u8fdb\u884c\u53ef\u884c\u6027\u548c\u5b9e\u7528\u6027\u8bd5\u9a8c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u6211\u8bd5\u56fe\u7528\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4fee\u8865\u4ee5\u524d\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u4e0d\u8db3\u65f6\uff0c\u628a\u57fa\u672c\u7ed3\u6784\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u7cbe\u9ad3\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5bfc\u822a\uff0c\u4ee5\u666e\u901a\u4eba\u7684\u6bc5\u529b\u594b\u6597\uff0c\u8fd9\u7ed9\u6211\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c11\u60ca\u559c\uff0c\u6210\u6548\u5927\u5927\u51fa\u4e4e\u6211\u7684\u610f\u6599\u3002\u6211\u66fe\u5728\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u5f9c\u5f89\uff0c\u53d7\u76ca\u532a\u6d45\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u6ca1\u6709\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6df1\u9020\u7684\u6253\u7b97\uff0c\u4f46\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u5b9e\u5b9e\u5728\u5728\u7684\u597d\u5904\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u5c3d\u91cf\u5728\u6700\u77ed\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u56de\u7b54\u5b8c\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u7ed3\u675f\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u6f14\u8bb2\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u6b64\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u6700\u8010\u4eba\u5bfb\u5473\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\u662f\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e0d\u5c11\u667a\u8005\u548c\u63a5\u53d7\u8fc7\u9ad8\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eca\u5929\u8bb2\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u662f\u8001\u751f\u5e38\u8c08\uff0c\u6beb\u65e0\u65b0\u610f\u3002\u4f46\u6211\u63ed\u9732\u51fa\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u4eba\u6587\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u5c16\u7aef\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9886\u57df\u5185\u7684\u6559\u6388\u90fd\u517b\u6210\u4e86\u5b66\u79d1\u5206\u5316\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u578b\u4e60\u60ef\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u6446\u5728\u5bf9\u9762\u7684\u8fc7\u9053\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e5f\u5bf9\u6b64\u65e0\u52a8\u4e8e\u8877\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u8352\u5510\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\u4eba\u6587\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u5145\u65a5\u4e86\u4e0d\u6b63\u5f53\u7684\u52a8\u673a\u3002\u7ea6\u7ff0\u900a\u535a\u58eb\u66fe\u4e00\u9488\u89c1\u8840\u5730\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u52a8\u673a\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e0e\u5174\u8da3\u76f8\u6096\uff0c\u771f\u7406\u5f88\u96be\u88ab\u5438\u6536\u3002\u5982\u679c\u662f\u52a8\u673a\u9020\u6210\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u77eb\u6b63\u65e0\u7591\u662f\u53ef\u884c\u7684\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u4e3a\u52a8\u673a\u53ef\u4ee5\u6539\u53d8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eca\u5929\u5c1d\u8bd5\u9610\u8ff0\u2014\u2014\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u4ee5\u4eb2\u8eab\u7ecf\u5386\u6765\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4eba\u6587\u5b66\u79d1\u9886\u57df\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u6539\u53d8\u76ee\u524d\u5b66\u79d1\u5206\u5316\u7684\u56fa\u6267\u4e60\u60ef\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6539\u53d8\u662f\u6709\u76ca\u7684\u3002\u7ea6\u7ff0\u900a\u66fe\u5f62\u5bb9\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u662f\u79cd\u201c\u80cc\u53db\u201d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u4fdd\u7559\u7740\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u7684\u65e0\u77e5\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u613f\u7528\u52e4\u594b\u6765\u7ea0\u6b63\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6cd5\u5b66\u9662\u6216\u8005\u5176\u4ed6\u5b66\u672f\u9886\u57df\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u7528\u6269\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u5e38\u89c1\u6216\u4e0d\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5c06\u83b7\u5f97\u65e0\u6cd5\u4f30\u91cf\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u3002\u6b64\u8fc7\u7a0b\u65e2\u6709\u4e50\u8da3\u53c8\u6709\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u6211\u63a8\u8350\u7ed9\u5927\u5bb6\u7684\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6109\u5feb\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\u9886\u57df\u5c06\u8ba9\u4f60\u4e50\u4e0d\u601d\u8fd4<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\uff08\u672c\u6587\u6458\u81ea\u300a\u7a77\u67e5\u7406\u5b9d\u5178\u300bPoor Charlie\u2019s Almanack: The Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger\uff0c\uff09<\/p>\n<p><em><\/em><em>\u7f16\u8005\u6ce8\uff1a\u67e5\u7406\u00b7\u8292\u683c\uff08Charlie Munger\uff09\uff0c<\/em>\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u7684\u5bfc\u5e08\u4e0e\u4eba\u751f\u5408\u4f19\u4eba\uff0c\u5f53\u4eca\u6700\u4f1f\u5927\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u601d\u60f3\u5bb6\uff0c\u4f2f\u514b\u5e0c\u5c14\u516c\u53f851\u5e74\u95f419%\u5e74\u590d\u5408\u589e\u957f\u7387\u7684\u5947\u8ff9\u7f14\u9020\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n<p><em>\u7f16\u8f91\uff1aWind<\/em><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span style=\"color: #339966;\">\u5ef6\u4f38\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<h3><a href=\"https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s\/_RUgR7z1uzOjc_I02pzf4w\" target=\"_blank\">DeepSeek\u7684\u79d8\u5bc6\u6b66\u5668\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u7adf\u7136\u662f\u6587\u79d1\u751f\uff01<\/a><\/h3>\n<h3><a title=\"Permanent link to \u7231\u56e0\u65af\u5766\u7ed9\u6570\u5b57\u6559\u80b2\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u542f\u793a\" rel=\"bookmark\" href=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/2024\/12\/lessons-for-digital-educators-from-albert-einstein\/\">\u7231\u56e0\u65af\u5766\u7ed9\u6570\u5b57\u6559\u80b2\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u542f\u793a<\/a><\/h3>\n<h3><a href=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/2024\/12\/bao-peng-shan\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u9c8d\u9e4f\u5c71\uff1a\u4eba\u6587\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u5883\u754c\uff0c\u662f\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u6446\u8131\u5de5\u5177\u548c\u52a8\u7269\u7684\u547d\u8fd0<\/a><\/h3>\n<h3><a title=\"Permanent link to \u6559\u80b2\u8bf4\uff5c\u6797\u5c0f\u82f1\uff1a\u4e2a\u4f53\u8981\u8131\u5d4c\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u8fc7\u5206\u5d4c\u5165\" rel=\"bookmark\" href=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/2024\/10\/lin-xiao-ying\/\">\u6559\u80b2\u8bf4\uff5c\u6797\u5c0f\u82f1\uff1a\u4e2a\u4f53\u8981\u8131\u5d4c\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u8fc7\u5206\u5d4c\u5165<\/a><\/h3>\n<h3><a title=\"Permanent link to JM\u89c2\u5bdf\uff5c\u6570\u5b57\u5316\u6d6a\u6f6e\u4e0b\uff0c\u6587\u79d1\u4e0d\u6b7b\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u5316\" rel=\"bookmark\" href=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/2024\/08\/in-the-digital-era-the-liberal-arts-wont-die%e2%80%94they-must-adapt-and-evolve\/\">JM\u89c2\u5bdf\uff5c\u6570\u5b57\u5316\u6d6a\u6f6e\u4e0b\uff0c\u6587\u79d1\u4e0d\u6b7b\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u5316<\/a><\/h3>\n<h3><a href=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/2024\/07\/life-is-one-big-experimental-art\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u5b9e\u9a8c\u827a\u672f\u73ed\u7684\u5927\u5b66\u56db\u5e74\u5b66\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/a><\/h3>\n<h3><a href=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/2024\/06\/xu-xiao-nian\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u8bb8\u5c0f\u5e74\uff1a\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u6cdb\u6ee5\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\uff0c\u591a\u8bfb\u7ecf\u5178\u4e66\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u601d\u8fa8<\/a><\/h3>\n<h3><a title=\"Permanent link to \u94b1\u5b66\u68ee\uff1a\u8c08\u79d1\u6280\u521b\u65b0\u4eba\u624d\u7684\u57f9\u517b\u95ee\u9898\" rel=\"bookmark\" href=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/2023\/12\/qianxuesen\/\">\u94b1\u5b66\u68ee\uff1a\u8c08\u79d1\u6280\u521b\u65b0\u4eba\u624d\u7684\u57f9\u517b\u95ee\u9898<\/a><\/h3>\n<h3><a title=\"Permanent link to \u9648\u5fd7\u6b66\uff1a\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u7cbe\u9ad3\u5728\u4e8e\u601d\u8fa8\u548c\u8868\u8fbe\" rel=\"bookmark\" href=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/2023\/11\/chenzhiwu\/\">\u9648\u5fd7\u6b66\uff1a\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u7cbe\u9ad3\u5728\u4e8e\u601d\u8fa8\u548c\u8868\u8fbe<\/a><\/h3>\n<h3><a title=\"Permanent link to \u6731\u5149\u6f5c\uff1a\u8c08\u4ef7\u503c\u610f\u8bc6\" rel=\"bookmark\" href=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/2023\/10\/zhuguangqian\/\">\u6731\u5149\u6f5c\uff1a\u8c08\u4ef7\u503c\u610f\u8bc6<\/a><\/h3>\n<h3><a title=\"Permanent link to \u5434\u56fd\u76db\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u628a\u79d1\u7814\u53d8\u6210\u8d5a\u94b1\u7684\u751f\u610f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6ce8\u5b9a\u6ca1\u6709\u672a\u6765\" rel=\"bookmark\" href=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/2023\/10\/wuguosheng-2\/\">\u5434\u56fd\u76db\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u628a\u79d1\u7814\u53d8\u6210\u8d5a\u94b1\u7684\u751f\u610f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6ce8\u5b9a\u6ca1\u6709\u672a\u6765<\/a><\/h3>\n<h3><a title=\"Permanent link to \u6559\u80b2\u8bf4\uff5c\u6559\u80b2\u6539\u9769\u9700\u6b63\u672c\u6e05\u6e90\uff0c\u628a\u201c\u9ad8\u201d\u5b57\u8fd8\u7ed9\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u9ad8\u6821\" rel=\"bookmark\" href=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/2023\/04\/yuli-2\/\">\u6559\u80b2\u8bf4\uff5c\u6559\u80b2\u6539\u9769\u9700\u6b63\u672c\u6e05\u6e90\uff0c\u628a\u201c\u9ad8\u201d\u5b57\u8fd8\u7ed9\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u9ad8\u6821<\/a><\/h3>\n<h3><a href=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/2022\/11\/yangshuzi\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u6768\u53d4\u5b50\uff1a\u5927\u5b66\u4e4b\u9053\u5728\u80b2\u4eba\u800c\u975e \u201c\u5236\u5668\u201d<\/a><\/h3>\n<h3><a href=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/2023\/01\/xubing\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u5f90\u51b0\uff1a\u521b\u9020\u8fd9\u4e2a\u57fa\u672c\u52a8\u529b\uff0c\u662f\u827a\u672f\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u6240\u6709\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u6838\u5fc3<\/a><\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u3010\u4e13\u680f\u3011| Columnists&gt;\u6559\u80b2\u8bf4 \u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u67e5\u7406\u00b7\u8292\u683c\uff08Charlie Munger\uff09\uff0c 1998\u5e744\u670824\u65e5 \u672c\u6587\u4e3a\u67e5\u7406\u00b7\u8292\u683c\u5728\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u6cd5\u5b66\u96621948\u5c4a\u6bd5\u4e1a\u751f\u4e94\u5341\u5468\u5e74\u56e2\u805a\u4e0a\u7684\u6f14\u8bb2 \u4eca\u5929\u6211\u6253\u7b97\u73a9\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u5c0f\u7684\u6e38\u620f\uff0c\u62ff\u8d77\u82cf\u683c\u62c9\u5e95\u7684\u7eb8\u724c\uff0c\u5b83\u6e90\u4e8e\u4e00\u672c\u54f2\u5b66\u7545\u9500\u4e66\u300a\u7eb8\u724c\u7684\u79d8\u5bc6\u300b\uff08The solitaire Mystery\uff09\u3002\u4e66\u4e2d\u7684\u5c0f\u4e11\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8f\u5112\uff0c\u4ed6\u662f\u6c38\u6052\u7684\u5c0f\u5b69\uff0c\u6c38\u8fdc\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u957f\u5927\uff0c\u6c38\u8fdc\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bf9\u4eba\u751f\u5931\u53bb\u597d\u5947\u3002\u5728\u53e4\u5e0c\u814a\uff0c\u82cf\u683c\u62c9\u5e95\u5c31\u662f\u4ed6\u90a3\u4e2a\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u4e00\u526f\u6251\u514b\u724c\u4e2d\u7684\u4e11\u89d2\u724c\uff0c\u4e66\u4e2d\u79f0\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u5fc3\u4e2d\u90fd\u6d3b\u7740\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u4e11\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u82cf\u683c\u62c9\u5e95\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u8eab\u4e3a\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u82cf\u683c\u62c9\u5e95\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u5e76\u4e0d\u5177\u5907\u7279\u6b8a\u7684\u201c\u8d44\u5386\u201d\uff0c\u4ed6\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u52a9\u4ea7\u58eb\u800c\u5df2\u3002 \u7f05\u6000\u901d\u53bb\u7684\u5927\u5e08\u4eec\uff0c\u6c89\u6d78\u5728\u63a2\u8ba8\u4eba\u751f\u771f\u76f8\u7684\u4e50\u8da3\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u5c06\u7528\u4e0b\u97625\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u56de\u7b54\u6765\u8d2f\u7a7f\u6f14\u8bb2\u7684\u59cb\u672b\uff1a \uff081\uff09\u804c\u4e1a\u4eba\u58eb\u662f\u5426\u9700\u8981\u589e\u5f3a\u591a\u5143\u5b66\u79d1\u6280\u80fd\uff1b \uff082\uff09\u6559\u80b2\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u5177\u5907\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u5b66\u79d1\u4e00\u4f53\u6027\uff1f \uff083\uff09\u5728\u4eba\u6587\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u5c16\u7aef\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\uff0c\u591a\u5143\u5b66\u79d1\u6559\u80b2\u6700\u4f73\u7684\u5b9e\u8df5\u5f62\u5f0f\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f \uff084\uff09\u8fc7\u53bb50\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u5c16\u7aef\u9886\u57df\u5728\u63a2\u8ba8\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\u6559\u80b2\u6700\u4f73\u5f62\u5f0f\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\u5982\u4f55\uff1f \uff085\uff09\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u6559\u5b66\u5b9e\u8df5\u624d\u80fd\u52a0\u5feb\u8fd9\u79cd\u8fdb\u5ea6\uff1f \u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u5f00\u59cb\uff1a\u804c\u4e1a\u8ba4\u8bc6\u9700\u8981\u589e\u5f3a\u591a\u5143\u5b66\u79d1\u6280\u80fd\u5417\uff1f \u4e3a\u4e86\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u5f97\u660e\u786e\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\u77e5\u8bc6\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u63d0\u5347\u804c\u4e1a\u8ba4\u77e5\u3002\u51b3\u5fc3\u7ea0\u6b63\u504f\u79bb\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\uff0c\u5fc5\u5b9a\u5148\u8981\u63a2\u660e\u9020\u6210\u8fd9\u79cd\u9519\u8bef\u8ba4\u77e5\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u8427\u4f2f\u7eb3\u7b14\u4e0b\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7269\u66fe\u5982\u6b64\u89e3\u91ca\u804c\u4e1a\u7f3a\u9677\uff1a\u201c\u6240\u8c13\u804c\u4e1a\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f\u8499\u9a97\u5916\u884c\u4eba\u7684\u9634\u8c0b\u3002\u201d\u8427\u4f2f\u7eb3\u5206\u6790\u5f97\u6781\u662f\u3002\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u8ffd\u6eaf\u523016\u4e16\u7eaa\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u5360\u7edf\u6cbb\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u795e\u804c\u4eba\u5458\u56e0\u4e3a\u5a01\u5ec9\u2022\u5ef7\u9053\u5c14\u628a\u300a\u5723\u7ecf\u300b\u7ffb\u8bd1\u6210\u82f1\u6587\uff0c\u5c31\u628a\u4ed6\u6d3b\u6d3b\u70e7\u6b7b\u5728\u67f1\u5b50\u4e0a\u3002 \u8427\u4f2f\u7eb3\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u4e00\u7b14\u5e26\u8fc7\uff1a\u4ece\u5229\u5df1\u51fa\u53d1\u6709\u76ca\u7684\u4f5c\u6076\u884c\u4e3a\u662f\u523d\u5b50\u624b\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u4e00\u63d0\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u804c\u4e1a\u751f\u6daf\u4e2d\uff0c\u6f5c\u610f\u8bc6\u5c42\u9762\u590d\u6742\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u503e\u5411\u7ecf\u5e38\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u53ef\u6015\u7684\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u503e\u5411\u5c24\u4e3a\u7a81\u51fa\uff1a \uff081\uff09\u52a8\u673a\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u504f\u89c1\uff08incentive-caused bias\uff09\uff0c\u4e00\u79cd\u5148\u5929\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u503e\u5411\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5bf9\u804c\u4e1a\u6709\u5229\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u5fc5\u5c06\u5bf9\u5ba2\u6237\u6216\u8005\u5e7f\u57df\u6587\u660e\u6709\u5229\u3002 \uff082\uff09\u9524\u5b50\u503e\u5411\uff08man-with-a-hammer tendency\uff09,\u6e90\u81ea\u4e00\u4e2a\u8c1a\u8bed\uff1a\u201c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u62ff\u7740\u9524\u5b50\u7684\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ed6\u773c\u4e2d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u90fd\u50cf\u9489\u5b50\u3002\u201d \u7ea0\u6b63\u9524\u5b50\u503e\u5411\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf9\u7b56\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u62e5\u6709\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\u6280\u80fd\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u638c\u63e1\u591a\u79cd\u5de5\u5177\u540e\uff0c\u5c06\u4f1a\u9650\u5236\u7531\u4e8e\u9524\u5b50\u503e\u5411\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u503e\u5411\u5ea6\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u80fd\u4ece\u5b9e\u8df5\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u4e2d\u5b66\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u9053\u7406\u2014\u2014\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u81ea\u5df1\u8fd8\u662f\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\uff0c\u82e5\u4e3a\u4e86\u907f\u514d\u4eba\u751f\u8d70\u4e0a\u504f\u79bb\u7684\u8f68\u9053\uff0c\u6bd5\u751f\u90fd\u5fc5\u987b\u8ddf\u4e0a\u9762\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u4e24\u79cd\u503e\u5411\u505a\u6597\u4e89\u2014\u2014\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u5728\u901a\u5f80\u751f\u6d3b\u667a\u6167\u7684\u9053\u8def\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c31\u8de8\u51fa\u4e86\u5efa\u8bbe\u65b0\u7684\u4e00\u6b65\u3002 \u5982\u679cA\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e13\u4e1a\u539f\u7406\uff0cB\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u539f\u7406\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u5b66\u79d1\u3002\u663e\u800c\u6613\u89c1\uff0c\u638c\u63e1A\u3001B\u4e24\u8005\u7684\u6548\u679c\u901a\u5e38\u8981\u597d\u4e8e\u5355\u7eaf\u638c\u63e1A\u3002\u6709\u4eba\u63d0\u51fa\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u638c\u63e1B\u7684\u5408\u4e4e\u60c5\u7406\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u8003\u8651\u5230A\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u66f4\u7d27\u6025\u7684\u4e8b\u8981\u505a\uff0c\u5b66\u4e60B\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e0d\u5207\u5408\u5b9e\u9645\u3002\u7a0d\u540e\u6211\u5c06\u9610\u8ff0\u8fd9\u79cd\u7406\u7531\u7684\u4e0d\u660e\u667a\u6027\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u5bf9\u5927\u591a\u6570\u6709\u5929\u8d4b\u7684\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002 \u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u5c31\u4e0d\u82b1\u8fc7\u591a\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6765\u9610\u8ff0\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6559\u80b2\u6781\u5ea6\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5b66\u79d1\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u95ee\u9898\u90fd\u662f\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u8fd0\u7528\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u6765\u89e3\u7b54\uff0c\u5c31\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u6865\u724c\u624b\u628a\u6240\u6709\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u90fd\u96c6\u4e2d\u5230\u5c06\u724c\u4e0a\uff0c\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u4efb\u4f55\u56e0\u7d20\u90fd\u4e0d\u4e88\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u75af\u72c2\u884c\u4e3a\u5c31\u50cf\u75af\u5e3d\u5b50\u8336\u4f1a\u4e00\u6837\u611a\u8822\uff0c\u804c\u4e1a\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\u8fd9\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\u5c61\u89c1\u4e0d\u9c9c\u3002\u66f4\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u57fa\u7840\u6027\u4e0d\u5982\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u7684\u4eba\u6587\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u5404\u4e2a\u5b66\u79d1\u76f8\u4e92\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u5df2\u7ecf\u6df1\u5165\u9aa8\u9ad3\u3002 \u6211\u5e74\u8f7b\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u5fb7\u9ad8\u671b\u91cd\u7684\u6559\u6388\u5c31\u5bf9\u6b64\u5927\u4e3a\u9707\u60ca\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u76f8\u4e92\u9694\u79bb\u3001\u4e0d\u76f8\u5f80\u6765\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u5404\u6267\u4e00\u7aef\uff0c\u6392\u65a5\u5176\u4ed6\u9886\u57df\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u6000\u7279\u6d77\u65e9\u5c31\u5bf9\u6b64\u5927\u52a0\u97ad\u631e\uff0c\u4ed6\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201c\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u5b66\u79d1\u95f4\u58c1\u5792\u201d\uff0c\u7528\u4e25\u5389\u7684\u53e3\u543b\u4e3a\u4eba\u4eec\u6572\u54cd\u4e86\u8b66\u949f\u3002\u81ea\u6b64\uff0c\u6000\u7279\u6d77\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5f97\u5230\u5927\u5bb6\u7684\u8ba4\u540c\uff0c\u800c\u4e00\u4e9b\u9876\u5c16\u6559\u80b2\u673a\u6784\u4e3a\u6539\u53d8\u8fd9\u79cd\u5b66\u79d1\u5206\u79bb\u7684\u72b6\u51b5\u5728\u589e\u5f3a\u6269\u5b66\u79d1\u6559\u80b2\u65b9\u9762\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u4ee4\u4eba\u77a9\u76ee\u7684\u6210\u6548\uff0c\u5e76\u6d8c\u73b0\u51fa\u4e00\u4e9b\u5728\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\u4ea4\u53c9\u5904\u594b\u52c7\u6218\u6597\u7684\u52c7\u58eb\u4eec\uff0c\u5982\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u5a01\u5c14\u68ee\u548c\u52a0\u5dde\u7406\u5de5\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u83b1\u7eb3\u65af\u2022\u9c8d\u6797\u3002 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