{"id":6685,"date":"2023-01-24T06:20:56","date_gmt":"2023-01-24T06:20:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/?p=6685"},"modified":"2024-06-24T19:16:15","modified_gmt":"2024-06-24T19:16:15","slug":"lvjianzhong4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/2023\/01\/lvjianzhong4\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6885\u4e2d\u9601\u968f\u7b14\uff5c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u9605\u8bfb\u4e66\u5355\uff1a2021\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5956\u542f\u793a"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/columnists\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #888888;\"><strong>\u3010\u4e13\u680f\u3011| <\/strong><strong>Conlumists<\/strong><\/span><\/a>&gt;\u6885\u4e2d\u9601\u968f\u7b14<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u5415\u5efa\u4e2d\uff0c2023-01-21<\/p>\n<p>\u8d8a\u662f\u5728\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\u5b66\u4e60\u3001\u53cd\u601d\u3001\u590d\u76d8\uff0c\u5c31\u8d8a\u80fd\u6df1\u5207\u611f\u53d7\u5230\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u6d59\u5927\u5b66\u8fc7\u7684\u300a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u63a7\u5236\u300b\u8fd9\u95e8\u8bfe\u4ee5\u53ca\u7531\u6b64\u5ef6\u5c55\u51fa\u6765\u81ea\u5b66\u9605\u8bfb\u7684\u300a\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bba\u300b\u3001\u300a\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u300b\u3001\u300a\u4fe1\u606f\u8bba\u300b\u7b49\u5e26\u7ed9\u601d\u7ef4\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u7cbe\u5999\u4e4b\u5904\u3002\u7528\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u601d\u7ef4\u3001\u957f\u671f\u4e3b\u4e49\u601d\u7ef4\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u300a\u6709\u9650\u4e0e\u65e0\u9650\u7684\u6e38\u620f\u300b\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u601d\u7ef4\uff0c\u6784\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u6709\u5f39\u6027\u7684\u7eb5\u6df1\u89c6\u91ce\uff0c\u6765\u5206\u6790\u548c\u5e94\u5bf9\u8106\u6027\u3001\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3001\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u80fd\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u6de1\u5b9a\u4e13\u6ce8\u3001\u6d1e\u5bdf\u8981\u5bb3\u3001\u89e3\u6784\u7eb7\u7e41\u3001\u91cd\u6784\u4f53\u7cfb\uff1b\u80fd\u5728\u591a\u8981\u7d20\u3001\u591a\u5173\u8054\u3001\u591a\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u589e\u5f3a\u56de\u8def\u3001\u51cf\u5f31\u56de\u8def\u3001\u81ea\u6f14\u8fdb\u3001\u81ea\u8c03\u8282\u3001\u81ea\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u7f1c\u5bc6\u7684\u95ed\u73af\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2021\u5e74\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fdKlaus Hasselmann\uff0cSyukuro Manabe\uff08\u65e5\u7c4d\uff09\uff0c\u610f\u5927\u5229Giorgio Parisi\uff0c\u4e09\u4f4d\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u56e0\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u201c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u201c\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\u53d6\u5f97\u7684\u5353\u8d8a\u6210\u5c31\uff0c\u5171\u540c\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u5f53\u5e74\u7684\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u3002Klaus Hasselmann \u521b\u5efa\u4e86\u5c06\u5929\u6c14\u548c\u5b8f\u89c2\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u8054\u7cfb\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u53ef\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7528\u91cf\u5316\u624b\u6bb5\u7406\u89e3\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6240\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002Syukuro Manabe \u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u548c\u5730\u8868\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u7684\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8ba9\u5730\u7403\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u9ad8\u3002\u4e24\u4f4d\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5206\u522b\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u65b9\u5f0f\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u5efa\u6a21\u548c\u6570\u503c\u6a21\u62df\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u6df7\u6c8c\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u5728\u65e0\u5e8f\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6750\u6599\u673a\u7406\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\uff0cGiorgio Parisi\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u9690\u85cf\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u590d\u578b\u89e3\u51b3\u4e86\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u800c\u5960\u5b9a\u4e86\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u77f3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u5bf9\u7b80\u5355\u7cfb\u7edf\u6bd4\u8f83\u719f\u6089\u3002\u7b80\u5355\u7cfb\u7edf\u662f\u6574\u4f53\u7b49\u4e8e\u4e2a\u4f53\u76f8\u52a0\u4e4b\u548c\u3001\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u89e3\u8fd8\u539f\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u800c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u5c5e\u4e8e\u201c1+1\u22602\u201d\u3001\u6574\u4f53\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u5404\u90e8\u5206\u4e4b\u548c\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u5fae\u89c2\u4e0a\u5404\u4e2a\u5b50\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e4b\u95f4\u901a\u8fc7\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u5bfc\u81f4\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0e\u884c\u4e3a\u6f14\u5316\u7684\u5b66\u8bf4\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u8681\u7fa4\u3001\u8702\u7fa4\u4e2a\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u53e0\u52a0\uff0c\u6784\u6210\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u6574\u4f53\u4e0a\u7fa4\u4f53\u5b8c\u6210\u590d\u6742\u4efb\u52a1\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff09\u3002\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u65e0\u6cd5\u7528\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u5206\u6790\u5176\u5b50\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\u3001\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u673a\u5236\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u7ef4\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6f14\u53d8\u5f88\u96be\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u5b8f\u89c2\u884c\u4e3a\u4e0a\u51fa\u73b0\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u3001\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u81ea\u7136\u754c\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u662f\u7531\u5404\u79cd\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u5ba2\u89c2\u4e16\u754c\u662f\u590d\u6742\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u53d7\u5236\u4e8e\u539f\u751f\u6001\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e60\u60ef\u6027\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u76f4\u89c9\u3001\u7ecf\u9a8c\u548c\u7b80\u5316\u6765\u89c2\u5bdf\u5bf9\u8c61\uff08\u800c\u975e\u771f\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e9b\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u8f83\u5f31\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u7cfb\u7edf\u6765\u8bf4\u4e5f\u8bb8\u52c9\u5f3a\u884c\u5f97\u901a\uff08\u4f46\u5b58\u5728\u76f8\u5e94\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u800c\u6211\u4eec\u9009\u62e9\u63a5\u53d7\u8fd9\u4e9b\u504f\u5dee\uff09\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e60\u60ef\u517b\u6210\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u628a\u81ea\u5df1\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e0a\u7684\u4e0d\u8db3\u5f53\u4f5c\u662f\u4ee5\u4e3a\u7136\uff0c\u81ea\u4ee5\u4e3a\u662f\u5730\u7528\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e60\u60ef\u505a\u51fa\u89c2\u5bdf\u548c\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u800c\u5fd8\u8bb0\u4e86\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e60\u60ef\u662f\u96be\u4ee5\u63ed\u793a\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u6df1\u5c42\u89c4\u5f8b\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u901a\u8fc7\u6df1\u5ea6\u548c\u7cbe\u8fdb\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u5e94\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u201c\u963f\u5c14\u6cd5\u72d7\u201d\u5c31\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u6df1\u5ea6\u589e\u5f3a\u5b66\u4e60\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u89e3\u51b3\u4e86\u56f4\u68cb\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u590d\u6742\u535a\u5f08\u7cfb\u7edf\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e3a\u4f7f\u7528\u667a\u80fd\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5\u6df1\u5165\u7406\u89e3\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u7a81\u7834\u6027\u5b9e\u4f8b\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u5b66\u4e60\u4e2d\uff0c\u8981\u4ece\u638c\u63e1\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4e09\u5927\u7279\u5f81\u5165\u624b\uff1a1\uff09\u9002\u5e94\u6027\uff0c\u73af\u5883\u5bfc\u81f4\u7cfb\u7edf\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d1\u751f\u6539\u53d8\uff1b2\uff09\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u6f14\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5bfc\u81f4\u56e0\u679c\u4e0d\u518d\u4e00\u4e00\u5bf9\u5e94\uff0c\u4e14\u4e0d\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u552f\u4e00\uff1b3\uff09\u6d8c\u73b0\u6027\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u7cfb\u7edf\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u5404\u56e0\u7d20\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u4ea7\u751f\u65b0\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u6027\uff0c\u4e14\u56e0\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u800c\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ece\u590d\u6742\u65e0\u5e8f\u7684\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u627e\u51fa\u666e\u9002\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u8ba4\u77e5\u590d\u6742\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u754c\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5408\u7406\u6709\u6548\u5730\u5229\u7528\u548c\u4fdd\u62a4\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u8ba4\u77e5\u590d\u6742\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u63a8\u52a8\u793e\u4f1a-\u7ecf\u6d4e-\u73af\u5883\u7684\u751f\u6001\u5316\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u5728\u7684\u5730\u7403\uff0c\u5176\u6c14\u5019\u5e73\u8861\u3001\u751f\u6001\u5e73\u8861\u3001\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u6750\u6599\u6709\u6548\u5229\u7528\uff0c\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u4eba\u7c7b\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u548c\u5173\u952e\u3002\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7406\u8bba\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u57ce\u5e02\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u751f\u6001\u4f53\u7cfb\u3001\u5e94\u5bf9\u8d2b\u56f0\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u3001\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4ee3\u8bae\u5236\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u3001\u5e2e\u52a9\u5f31\u52bf\u7fa4\u4f53\u53d1\u5c55\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u53d1\u6325\u51fa\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u628a\u81ea\u7136\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u6280\u672f\u9886\u57df\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7528\u76f8\u540c\u6216\u8005\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u7edf\u4e00\u63cf\u5199\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6620\u5c04\u3001\u7c7b\u6bd4\u3001\u79fb\u690d\u7b49\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u53d1\u73b0\u5171\u540c\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u53d1\u73b0\u5177\u4f53\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7279\u6709\u6027\u8d28\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u89e3\u51b3\u590d\u6742\u95ee\u9898\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u6709\u6548\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4f01\u4e1a\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5c06\u8fd9\u5957\u65b9\u6cd5\u5b66\u8fd0\u7528\u4e8e\u4f01\u4e1a\u6218\u7565\u548c\u7ba1\u7406\uff0c\u5728\u65e5\u76ca\u52a8\u8361\u3001\u590d\u6742\u3001\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u5546\u4e1a-\u793e\u4f1a\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u56de\u7b54\u6211\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u6211\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u6211\u505a\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u6211\u5982\u4f55\u505a\uff0c\u6211\u80fd\u505a\u591a\u4e45\u4ee5\u53ca\u6211\u8981\u6210\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8fd9\u4e00\u7c7b\u51b3\u5b9a\u5546\u4e1a\u6838\u5fc3\u548c\u6218\u7565\u672c\u8d28\u7684\u6839\u672c\u6027\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6709\u6781\u5927\u7684\u5e2e\u52a9\uff0c\u5b83\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u3001\u6574\u4f53\u6027\u3001\u52a8\u6001\u6027\u548c\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7684\u63a2\u7d22\u4e4b\u8def\uff0c\u4f7f\u6218\u7565\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\u66f4\u8d34\u5207\uff0c\u8868\u8ff0\u66f4\u6e05\u6670\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u5904\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eceVUCA\u5230BANI\u8fc5\u901f\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u6b63\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u7a81\u53d1\u6027\u793e\u4f1a\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u73af\u5883\u3001\u5065\u5eb7\uff08\u5982\u5e2d\u5377\u5168\u7403\u7684\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\uff09\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u8bc4\u4f30\u548c\u91cf\u5316\u8106\u5f31\u6027\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u97e7\u6027\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e2e\u52a9\u76d1\u6d4b\u548c\u5b9e\u73b0UNSDG2030\u8fd9\u4e00\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5b8f\u5927\u76ee\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ecb\u7ecd\u51e0\u672c\u5b66\u4e60\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5165\u95e8\u4e66\u7c4d\u3002\u9996\u5148\u63a8\u8350\u300a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u5bfc\u8bba\u300b\uff08An Introduction to Complex Systems\uff09\uff0c\u5b83\u4ece\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u9886\u57df\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u7cfb\u7edf\u6982\u5ff5\u3001\u6df7\u6c8c\u548c\u5206\u5f62\u3001\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u3001\u57fa\u4e8e\u4ee3\u7406\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u4fe1\u606f\u8bba\u3001\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\uff0c\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u5efa\u7acb\u521d\u6b65\u4e86\u89e3\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f4\u89c2\u7684\u611f\u89c9\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/jz6.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6688\" title=\"jz6\" src=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/jz6-1024x804.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"614\" height=\"482\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/jz6-1024x804.png 1024w, https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/jz6-300x235.png 300w, https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/jz6.png 1838w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 614px) 100vw, 614px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u7f16\u9009\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e66\u5355\uff0c\u53ef\u6839\u636e\u5174\u8da3\u559c\u597d\u6765\u9009\u8bfb\uff1a<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\u300a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u5bfc\u8bba\u300b<\/li>\n<li>\u300a\u590d\u6742\uff1a\u4e00\u95e8\u8bde\u751f\u4e8e\u79e9\u5e8f\u4e0e\u6df7\u6c8c\u8fb9\u7f18\u7684\u5b66\u79d1<\/li>\n<li>\u300a\u590d\u6742\u6027\u4e0e\u4e34\u754c\u73b0\u8c61\u300b<\/li>\n<li>\u300a\u89c4\u6a21\uff1a\u590d\u6742\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u6cd5\u5219\u300b<\/li>\n<li>\u300a\u9690\u79e9\u5e8f\uff1a\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u9020\u5c31\u590d\u6742\u6027\u300b<\/li>\n<li>\u300a\u94fe\u63a5\uff1a\u5546\u4e1a\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u65b0\u601d\u7ef4\u300b<\/li>\n<li>\u300a\u4ece\u5b58\u5728\u5230\u6f14\u5316\u300b<\/li>\n<li>\u300a\u9884\u77e5\u793e\u4f1a : \u7fa4\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u5185\u5728\u6cd5\u5219\u300b<\/li>\n<li>\u300a\u5931\u63a7 : \u5168\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u547d\u8fd0\u548c\u7ed3\u5c40\u300b<\/li>\n<li>\u300a\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u300b<\/li>\n<li>\u300a\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u300b<\/li>\n<li>\u300a\u4fe1\u606f\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u300b<\/li>\n<li>\u300a\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u4e0e\u6df7\u6c8c\u300b<\/li>\n<li>\u300a\u968f\u673a\u65b9\u6cd5\u624b\u518c\u300b<\/li>\n<li>\u300aA New Kind of Science\u300b<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u65f6\u5e38\u611f\u6069\u6d59\u5927\uff0c\u505a\u4e3a\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u5165\u95e8\u8bfe\uff0c\u300a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u63a7\u5236\u300b\u771f\u662f\u6781\u5176\u5b9d\u8d35\uff0c\u5b83\u7275\u5f15\u7740\u6211\u5728\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u7cbe\u8fdb\u4e4b\u65c5\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u5173\u8054\u201d\u3001\u201c\u6d8c\u73b0\u201d\u3001\u201c\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u201d\uff0c\u6765\u53d1\u73b0\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u53ef\u8c13\u7ec8\u751f\u53d7\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/jz5.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6687\" title=\"jz5\" src=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/jz5-1024x675.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"614\" height=\"405\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/jz5-1024x675.png 1024w, https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/jz5-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/jz5.png 1994w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 614px) 100vw, 614px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>\u4f5c\u8005\u7b80\u4ecb\uff1a<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u5415\u5efa\u4e2d \uff0c<\/em><em>\u5168\u7403\u62a5\u544a\u5021\u8bae\u7ec4\u7ec7GRI\u8463\u4e8b\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u793e\u4f1a\u8d23\u4efb\u667a\u5e93\u526f\u7406\u4e8b\u957f\u3001\u4e0a\u6d77\u5916\u5546\u6295\u8d44\u534f\u4f1a\u76d1\u4e8b\u957f\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span style=\"color: #339966;\">\u5ef6\u4f38\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<h3><a title=\"Permanent link to \u6885\u4e2d\u9601\u968f\u7b14\uff5c\u7279\u5965\u591a\u5c14\u00b7\u8499\u68ee\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u9605\u8bfb\u4e66\u5355\" rel=\"bookmark\" href=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/2023\/01\/lvjianzhong3\/\"><span style=\"color: #808080;\">\u6885\u4e2d\u9601\u968f\u7b14\uff5c\u7279\u5965\u591a\u5c14\u00b7\u8499\u68ee\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u9605\u8bfb\u4e66\u5355<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n<h3><a title=\"Permanent link to \u6885\u4e2d\u9601\u968f\u7b14\uff5c\u54c8\u8036\u514b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9605\u8bfb\u6e05\u5355\uff1a\u4e0e\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u7684\u8bba\u6218\" rel=\"bookmark\" href=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/2023\/01\/lvjianzhong2\/\"><span style=\"color: #808080;\">\u6885\u4e2d\u9601\u968f\u7b14\uff5c\u54c8\u8036\u514b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9605\u8bfb\u6e05\u5355\uff1a\u4e0e\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u7684\u8bba\u6218<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n<h3><a title=\"Permanent link to \u6885\u4e2d\u9601\u968f\u7b14\uff5c\u718a\u5f7c\u7279\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9605\u8bfb\u4e66\u5355\" rel=\"bookmark\" href=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/2023\/01\/lvjianzhong\/\"><span style=\"color: #808080;\">\u6885\u4e2d\u9601\u968f\u7b14\uff5c\u718a\u5f7c\u7279\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9605\u8bfb\u4e66\u5355<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n<h3><a href=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/columnists\/corporate-coach-tall\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #808080;\">\u4f01\u4e1a\u6559\u7ec3\u4e00\u5e2d\u8c08\uff5cCorporate Coach Tall<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n<h3><a href=\"https:\/\/jointings.org\/cn\/2022\/09\/prof-n-r-liu-2022-7-22\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #808080;\">\u5218\u6559\u6388\u601d\u60f3<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u3010\u4e13\u680f\u3011| Conlumists&gt;\u6885\u4e2d\u9601\u968f\u7b14 \u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u5415\u5efa\u4e2d\uff0c2023-01-21 \u8d8a\u662f\u5728\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\u5b66\u4e60\u3001\u53cd\u601d\u3001\u590d\u76d8\uff0c\u5c31\u8d8a\u80fd\u6df1\u5207\u611f\u53d7\u5230\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u6d59\u5927\u5b66\u8fc7\u7684\u300a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u63a7\u5236\u300b\u8fd9\u95e8\u8bfe\u4ee5\u53ca\u7531\u6b64\u5ef6\u5c55\u51fa\u6765\u81ea\u5b66\u9605\u8bfb\u7684\u300a\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bba\u300b\u3001\u300a\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u300b\u3001\u300a\u4fe1\u606f\u8bba\u300b\u7b49\u5e26\u7ed9\u601d\u7ef4\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u7cbe\u5999\u4e4b\u5904\u3002\u7528\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u601d\u7ef4\u3001\u957f\u671f\u4e3b\u4e49\u601d\u7ef4\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u300a\u6709\u9650\u4e0e\u65e0\u9650\u7684\u6e38\u620f\u300b\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u601d\u7ef4\uff0c\u6784\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u6709\u5f39\u6027\u7684\u7eb5\u6df1\u89c6\u91ce\uff0c\u6765\u5206\u6790\u548c\u5e94\u5bf9\u8106\u6027\u3001\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3001\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u80fd\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u6de1\u5b9a\u4e13\u6ce8\u3001\u6d1e\u5bdf\u8981\u5bb3\u3001\u89e3\u6784\u7eb7\u7e41\u3001\u91cd\u6784\u4f53\u7cfb\uff1b\u80fd\u5728\u591a\u8981\u7d20\u3001\u591a\u5173\u8054\u3001\u591a\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u589e\u5f3a\u56de\u8def\u3001\u51cf\u5f31\u56de\u8def\u3001\u81ea\u6f14\u8fdb\u3001\u81ea\u8c03\u8282\u3001\u81ea\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u7f1c\u5bc6\u7684\u95ed\u73af\u3002 2021\u5e74\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fdKlaus Hasselmann\uff0cSyukuro Manabe\uff08\u65e5\u7c4d\uff09\uff0c\u610f\u5927\u5229Giorgio Parisi\uff0c\u4e09\u4f4d\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u56e0\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u201c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u201c\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\u53d6\u5f97\u7684\u5353\u8d8a\u6210\u5c31\uff0c\u5171\u540c\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u5f53\u5e74\u7684\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u3002Klaus Hasselmann \u521b\u5efa\u4e86\u5c06\u5929\u6c14\u548c\u5b8f\u89c2\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u8054\u7cfb\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u53ef\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7528\u91cf\u5316\u624b\u6bb5\u7406\u89e3\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6240\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002Syukuro Manabe \u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u548c\u5730\u8868\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u7684\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8ba9\u5730\u7403\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u9ad8\u3002\u4e24\u4f4d\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5206\u522b\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u65b9\u5f0f\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u5efa\u6a21\u548c\u6570\u503c\u6a21\u62df\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u6df7\u6c8c\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u5728\u65e0\u5e8f\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6750\u6599\u673a\u7406\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\uff0cGiorgio Parisi\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u9690\u85cf\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u590d\u578b\u89e3\u51b3\u4e86\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u800c\u5960\u5b9a\u4e86\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u77f3\u3002 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